Altered Sub-Genomic RNA Expression in SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Infections (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 viruses are more transmissible, may lead to greater clinical severity, and result in modest reductions in antibody neutralization. subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) is produced by discontinuous transcription of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and is a crucial step in the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle. Applying our tool (periscope) to ARTIC Network Oxford Nanopore genomic sequencing data from 4400 SARS-CoV-2 positive clinical samples, we show that normalised sgRNA expression profiles are significantly increased in B.1.1.7 infections (n=879). This increase is seen over the previous dominant circulating lineage in the UK, B.1.177 (n=943), which is independent of genomic reads, E gene cycle threshold and day of illness when sampling occurred. A noncanonical subgenomic RNA which could represent ORF9b is significantly enriched in B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 infections, potentially as a result of a triple nucleotide mutation leading to amino acid substitution D3L in nucleocapsid in this lineage which increases complementarity with the genomic leader sequence. These findings provide a unique insight into the biology of B.1.1.7 and support monitoring of sgRNA profiles in sequence data to evaluate emerging potential variants of concern.

periscope: sub-genomic RNA identification in SARS-CoV-2 ARTIC Network Nanopore Sequencing Data (preprint)

We have developed periscope, a tool for the detection and quantification of sub-genomic RNA in ARTIC network protocol generated Nanopore SARS-CoV-2 sequence data. We applied periscope to 1155 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Sheffield, UK. Using a simple local alignment to detect reads which contain the leader sequence we were able to identify and quantify reads arising from canonical and non-canonical sub-genomic RNA. We were able to detect all canonical sub-genomic RNAs at expected abundances, with the exception of ORF10, suggesting that this is not a functional ORF. A number of recurrent non-canonical sub-genomic RNAs are detected. We show that the results are reproducible using technical replicates and determine the optimum number of reads for sub-genomic RNA analysis. Finally variants found in genomic RNA are transmitted to sub-genomic RNAs with high fidelity in most cases. This tool can be applied to tens of thousands of sequences worldwide to provide the most comprehensive analysis of SARS-CoV-2 sub-genomic RNA to date.

Aligning SARS-CoV-2 Indicators via an Epidemic Model: Application to Hospital Admissions and RNA Detection in Sewage Sludge (preprint)

Ascertaining the state of coronavirus outbreaks is crucial for public health decision-making. Absent repeated representative viral test samples in the population, public health officials and researchers alike have relied on lagging indicators of infection to make inferences about the direction of the outbreak and attendant policy decisions. Recently researchers have shown that SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in municipal sewage sludge with measured RNA concentrations rising and falling suggestively in the shape of an epidemic curve while providing an earlier signal of infection than hospital admissions data. The present paper presents a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model to serve as a basis for estimating the incidence of infection, and shows mathematically how modeled transmission dynamics translate into infection indicators by incorporating probability distributions for indicator-specific time lags from infection. Hospital admissions and SARS-CoV-2 RNA in municipal sewage sludge are simultaneously modeled via maximum likelihood scaling to the underlying transmission model. The results demonstrate that both data series plausibly follow from the transmission model specified, provide a direct estimate of the reproductive number R0 = 2.38, and suggest that the detection of viral RNA in sewage sludge leads hospital admissions by 4.6 days on average.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreak dynamics (preprint)

We report a time course of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary sewage sludge during the Spring COVID-19 outbreak in a northeastern U.S. metropolitan area. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in all environmental samples, and when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations tracked the COVID-19 epidemiological curve. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a leading indicator of community infection ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and local hospital admissions. Decisions to implement or relax public health measures and restrictions require timely information on outbreak dynamics in a community.